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Oil to hit $40

تجزیه و تحلیل بازارهای مالی و کالایی

The Oil price hit a 1 month low today as more evidence mounts that the planned deal by OPEC members to slash oil output is in major doubts.

In a meeting in Vienna over the weekend, non-OPEC members Azerbaijan, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Oman and Russia all refused to jump on the bandwagon and freeze production until the Members of OPEC reach a consensus.

The deal which seems more unlikely as time goes by, is made even more difficult by the fact that Iran and Iraq are pushing to be exempt from any reductions to make up for lost time.

"It might be impossible for OPEC to come to an agreement on making cuts," said Mark Watkins, the Park City, Utah-based regional investment manager for The Private Client Group of U.S. Bank, which oversees $136 billion in assets.

"The best that can realistically be expected is a freeze. Iran, Libya and Nigeria will probably be allowed to raise production to pre-disruption levels." he added.

The fallout from a failed deal will hit the oil market like a rocket according to some analysts, and a sudden fall of around 20 percent is not out of the question as investors run for the exit gates,

"Right now it’s not looking good but these things always go right down to the wire," said Mike Wittner, head of oil-market research at Societe Generale SA in New York.

"There’s an awful lot at stake here. If they don’t reach an agreement oil will fall like a rock and be testing $40 in no time." he added.


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